The greatest difference going into the Vancouver
Canuck's 2012/13 season will be in net, as this organization has been lucky
enough to have two franchise goaltenders on the roster for too long now, and
due to both Cory Schneider's looming RFA status and the way things ended for
Roberto Luongo last season, it has become clear that only one goalie will
remain a Canuck come September. There has been much talk of Luongo being
traded over the summer, and many opinions on the matter, but there has been a
lack of analysis on each player's numbers, how they differ, and what they mean
for the Canuck's future.
Let's start with the basics- in the last
two seasons (since Schneider has shared duties with Luongo), #1 and #35's GAA
have been 2.26 and 1.86 respectively. When
we enter the playoffs, Luongo's GAA rises 11%
to 2.52, while Schneider's falls 26% to 1.38. This is where we begin to see the
differences between the two goaltender's games, and the gap only widens from
here. The standard deviation (degree to which each game is near the goalie's average
GAA) between the two goaltenders is quite comparable throughout an entire
season, but when we isolate the playoffs, Schneider's SD falls by 34%, from 1.39 to 0.91, meaning be
becomes more consistent, and Luongo's playoff standard deviation increases by 31%, from 1.41 to 1.85, showing less
consistency. We have seen
this empirically throughout the years, but the numbers make our convictions
abundantly clear.
The statistics
don't stop here- when we look closely at the differences between GAA and SV%
between the two goaltenders we find an intriguing detail. As mentioned, the GAA move in
opposite directions for each goaltender when they enter the playoffs, however,
the SV% remains virtually the same for each. Luongo's SV% only worsens by 2%, while
his GAA worsens by 11%. This means he is saving nearly the same proportion of
shots (although, not on a consistent basis, according to his SD), but is
allowing more, thus he has to be facing
more shots.
Schneider's save percentage remains unchanged in playoffs, but his GAA improves
by 26%, meaning he is saving the same proportion, but is facing less shots on average. This suggests that the
team as a whole plays better defensively when Schneider is in net, by allowing
less shots on net, and this theory can be confirmed by comparing shots against
in the past two years. It turns out that on average, Schneider faces 14% less
shots than Luongo, and although there are many possible explanations for this
phenomenon, the fact is that during the last two seasons, the Canucks have been
more defensively responsible when Schneider is behind them.
So what does this mean for the Canucks
going forward if they choose Cory Schneider as the future goaltender of the
franchise? Well, during last
year's playoffs, it began evident that the Canucks held more trust in Schneider
than Luongo, and the numbers presented above support
management's decision. Schneider
brings less volatility, more consistency come playoffs, and perhaps most
surprisingly, better defense from the team as a whole. If he remains a Canuck, the trickle
down effect will likely result in tighter, more defensively sound games, and
less of the offensive explosions that we have seen from the Canucks in past
years. In fact, since 2009, goals for and number of games played by Schneider
has been inversely related, as over this time frame goals for are 6% higher on
average with Luongo in net. However, when comparing GF to GA while each
goaltender is in net, we find that the Canuck’s goal differential favorably increases by 34% when Schneider is
playing.
The difference of just one player will
likely cause the 2013 Canucks to look quite different from the 2009 or 2010
high-scoring teams that Vancouver is used to.
While fans may have to adapt to a more defensive style of play with less
goals and perhaps even less excitement, when we look to the defensive
consistency the LA Kings showed throughout their recent run, the city of
Vancouver just might have a better chance at a cup.
No comments:
Post a Comment