The Vancouver Canucks currently
stand 3rd in the Western conference and given the on ice performance
the team has showcased so far this year, most fans and analysts would likely
forecast the Canucks to finish in 3rd. Yet this says little of the
true nature of the Vancouver Canucks, and what they may or may not be capable
of achieving. Luckily for Vancouver, the team is able to benefit from their
spot within the Northwest division. By being in arguably the worst division in
the NHL they are often able to steal points in the 24 games they play against
division rivals per season (18 this season), and due to the current structure
of the standings, they may be able to leap frog teams with more points and
finish with a higher rank. Some may take comfort in this, some may worry, and
some may be disillusioned. However fans may feel, they deserve to see the
truth.
Since the 2008-2009 season the
Canucks have performed better against their Northwest division opponents than
the rest of the NHL. The difference in terms of winning percentage between inter-divisional
and non-divisional games has favored divisional by about 10-13% in most years,
but has jumped to a 31% difference in this 2013 season. A clearer picture can
be illustrated by averaging inter-divisional winning percentages since 2008,
which yields .750, and comparing this to the average winning percentage outside
of the division, .597. This means that during the 29% of games that face teams
in the Northwest, the Canucks have on average a 15% better chance to earn
points than if they were playing a team outside of their division. By the end
of the regular season, this can translate into substantial points and even
cause a shift in the standings.
(Note: for the sake of the
argument, the following analysis assumes the standings are ranked strictly by
points – otherwise Vancouver would finish third every year because the rest of
the Northwest teams still trails by a substantial margin).
To illustrate just how powerful
this effect is, take the 2008-2009 season, for example. By applying the Canucks
winning percentage against teams outside of their division to the entire 82
game season, the Canucks would have racked up 95 points as opposed to their
actual realized 100, and would have finished 6th instead of 3rd.
The following year the Canucks would have lost 5 points again and fallen from 3rd
to 8th. This year, by applying Vancouver’s meager .500 winning
percentage against non-divisional teams to all games played so far this season,
they would drop like a brick from 3rd to 12th. Luckily for Canuck fans, Vancouver is propped
up to a cozy playoff position thanks to a weak division and the structure of
the standings.
Although these numbers are
hypothetical, they hold meaningful implications for the Canucks past, present
and future. By benefitting from these extra points scavenged from a weak
division and being that the winner of the Northwest is granted a fate not worse
than 3rd, the Canucks fans and community may have a false sense of
confidence when they reflect on their team. Admittedly, every fan knows those
Northwest division banners hanging in the otherwise bare rafters of Rogers
Arena mean nothing, yet there is still some pride associated with this 4-year steak.
Fans understand that regular season standings are just a necessary precursor to
the big show, but the Presidents Trophy still felt nice in 2011. Yet if the
NHL’ s regular season standings were intuitively formatted (as they last were
in 1998) and the divisions were realigned, the silent comfort and confidence
associated with these achievements would melt away. More practically, for those
scratching their heads on how the Canucks have placed 3rd or better
for the past 4 seasons and have yet to parade in downtown Vancouver, consider
that they ceased to play division rivals in the playoffs. If their winning
percentage in the playoffs drops to that of non-divisional games (which since
2009 it has, with a total W% of 0.550), they become a middle of the pack
playoff team, and in the past their fate often converges with one. In fact the
year that the Canucks had the best non-divisional winning percentage was the
same year that they went to the Stanley Cup finals.
So what does this mean for the
future? First of all, the Canucks shouldn’t bank on a below average division to
rack up regular season points, especially since this doesn’t transfer into the
playoffs when those teams will likely disappear (or at least fall from 29% of
their total games played). With realignment a distinct possibility the Canucks
may face tougher teams for 24 games a season. With this in mind, a stronger
emphasis on the prospects and drafting may be required as Vancouver could
otherwise see a significant (and surprising to most) fall from the top of the
standings. And being that maybe the Canucks have not been as good as we thought,
the franchise could be justified in making a coaching change. After all, how many
years does a coach with a .597 winning percentage deserve to last with the
talents of the Sedins, Kesler, enviable goaltending, and zero cups?
One way or another, in order for
Vancouver to succeed now and in the future they must perform better against
non-divisional teams. They undoubtedly have a strong team, but it may not be as
solid as we think. Looking carefully at the numbers suggests that changes in
the near future will have to be made if Vancouver wants to see their first
Stanley Cup. With expectations as high as they are in this city, those changes
will likely occur if the Canucks linger on this mediocre path for much longer,
especially if it becomes realized that even these results are inflated.
Continuing to prey on the weak will not keep this team afloat come April, and
those who might take solace in another third place finish may be left with a
bad taste in their mouths when the playoffs roll into town this year.
** all stats are taken as from March 6th